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Thursday
Dec022010

Bill C- 49: Is this the next election trigger?

The Liberals have decided to vote against the Conservative bill that attacks human smuggling. They are joining with the Bloc and the NDP, with all three parties vowing to kill the bill. One can almost hear Conservative coalition rhetoric on this decision.

Have the Liberals put their finger on the trigger that could cause an election, an election fought on the Conservative’s terms? All it will take is for the government to announce that the vote will be one of “confidence”. Lose it and the Conservatives are handed their election.

Attacking human smuggling has been a consistent Conservative theme since the last boat arrived off the coast of BC. Jason Kenney is insisting that this bill will go forward, regardless of the fact that it might be defeated. Kenney is a very smart operator. He has spent the last few years working our various new Canadian communities. He better than anyone else in the government, knows best how these communities will respond if it comes down to an election on this issue.

I know from my own experience that when boats arrived in the 1980’s, the harshest criticism came from new Canadians. These were individuals and families that had waited many years to be selected to immigrate to Canada. They came legally, waited their turn and were furious at what they saw as queue jumping.

Ignatieff’s spin is that he is standing up for the Charter and for the victims of human smuggling. The government will counter by arguing against queue jumping, being in favour of secure borders and punishing those that abuse our laws. For once the Liberals will take the lofty intellectual approach and argue about the Charter and legal rights while the Conservatives will be making an argument that will appeal to the heart.

Perhaps this explains the rumours that the shuffle is planned for next week, rather than the more logical early January period. Complete the shuffle. Get their election cabinet into place. Put Fantino in as a junior minister so that he can return to refight Vaughan as a cabinet minister. Then, call a confidence vote on the bill the last week the House sits in December or the first week of February after the House returns.

The Conservatives won the last Christmas election in 2005-06. There is no reason for them to be afraid of one now, especially when they can ride the momentum from Vaughan. The Liberals will get blamed for a Christmas election and the vote could be in February. There is nothing wrong with that timing for the Conservatives.

It will be an interesting campaign, Liberals arguing Charter and the Conservatives attacking smugglers, the coalition for not standing up for secure borders and the immigration industry that profits from defending queue-jumpers. Olivia Chow of the NDP was quoted as saying “bring it on”. She might get her wish.

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Reader Comments (8)

My question to MIA is just who is the victim of human smuggling. From what I gather the boatload that arrived all paid money to in effect jump the queue to get into Canada. The people who paid the money are not victims. The people who accepted the money and hired the boat were not victims so just who is the victim?

Canada?!?

If so why isn't MIA standing up for Canada with PM Harper?

December 2, 2010 | Unregistered CommenterJoe

There is an old proverb that can be applied here: There's no fool like an old fool.
Both the Libs and NDP have suffered sustainable losses lately and have no hope of achieving any success should a federal election become a reality.
Chantal Hebert's assessment of a Conservative majority will come to pass.
Paging Mr. Ignatieff - The bus for Harvard is now leaving the building.
Spin that LIBS/DIPS!

December 2, 2010 | Unregistered CommenterRonald

"The people who paid the money are not victims."
I would say there is a good chance that they are. Where did these people get that kind of money for this trip? Did they have to borrow it from the people running the smuggling? If so (and it's very likely), then they will be indebted to them for years to come and may even be forced to keep working for the smugglers and sending the money back to them. Maybe performing jobs for them from withing Canada with the threat of the rest of their families back in the old country being harmed/killed if they don't cooperate? There is a good chance there are victims in this.

December 2, 2010 | Unregistered CommenterTS2

Except that no one made them seek out and pay the human smugglers. These people wanted to get ahead of the legal applicants and essentially cheat the system. Legal applicants are the victims even if the cheats have buyer's remorse.

December 2, 2010 | Unregistered CommenterAnne

I know what you're saying but it is possible the refugees where tricked into it too. They were maybe told it was legal and their money would be refunded when they got to Canada etc. It's pretty hard to trust smugglers are going to be honest about the deal.

December 2, 2010 | Unregistered CommenterTS2

"They were maybe told it was legal and their money would be refunded when they got to Canada etc."

Why of course all immigrants to Canada arrive on tramp steamers having spent months at sea with no bathroom facilities for the piddling sum of $50,000.00 to be refunded upon arrival. I mean it is so much cheaper than airfare. (sarc)

Hey I might have been born at night but it wasn't last night.

December 2, 2010 | Unregistered CommenterJoe

Why of course all immigrants to Canada arrive on tramp steamers having spent months at sea with no bathroom facilities for the piddling sum of $50,000.00 to be refunded upon arrival. I mean it is so much cheaper than airfare. (sarc)

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